Monsoon likely to enter partial ‘break’ phase from today: IMD

Monsoon is probably going to enter a partial “break” phase once more with scanty rainfall expected over northwest and west India for a minimum of every week from Monday onwards, consistent with the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

There was a “break” in monsoon rains from Saints Peter and Paul to July 11 and a really weak monsoon was witnessed within the first fortnight of August also resulting in significant deficit in rains within the month across the country. Monsoon revived over northwest India on August 19 but it’s likely to weaken again from August 24, IMD said.

“Heavy rainfall is predicted till end of Sunday but rainfall over northwest India is predicted to scale back significantly from Monday. We expect weak monsoon conditions to line in again for a minimum of 5 days. No major rainfall is predicted over the West Coast or northwest India but the eastern states particularly northeast will receive rainfall. this is often mainly thanks to shifting of the monsoon trough to the north over the Himalayan foothills. So, the plains will remain largely dry,” said RK Jenamani, senior scientist, IMD.

“We are entering a partial break monsoon phase. it’ll be the third during this season. thanks to the monsoon trough shifting to the north most parts of Delhi, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan will remain dry till the top of month. No significant rain is predicted over Gujarat or Maharashtra either. There could also be rains over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. it’ll be a partial break in monsoon because rains are expected to continue over east and northeast India,” explained Mahesh Palawat, vice chairman , global climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather.

deficiency over northwest India, 35.4% deficiency over central India, 29.9% deficiency over south peninsula and 6.6% deficiency over east and northeast India. During monsoon season since June 1, there has been 8% deficiency in rain over the country with 11% deficiency over northwest India, 11% deficiency over east and northeast India, 10% deficiency over central India and 4% excess over peninsular India.

The western end of the monsoon trough is lying to the south of its normal position and therefore the eastern end lying to the north of its normal position. The western end is extremely likely to shift gradually northwards from August 23. A cyclonic circulation is lying over northeast Rajasthan and adjoining northwest Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels. Another cyclonic circulation is lying over Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka coasts.

A trough is running from northeast Rajasthan to south Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka coasts across central parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Telangana, Rayalaseema and north Tamil Nadu . thanks to these environmental condition , rainfall activity over plains of northwest India and adjoining Central India is probably going to continue till August 23 and reduce thereafter, IMD predicted.

Rainfall is predicted to scale back over Maharashtra and therefore the West Coast also but scattered to fairly widespread activity very likely over southern Peninsular India during next 5 days. Isolated heavy rainfall is probably going over Tamil Nadu , Puducherry and Karaikal till August 24.

There is likely to be enhanced rainfall activity over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal , Sikkim and Bihar from August 24. Widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is extremely likely to continue over northeast India, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal , Sikkim and Bihar till August 24, and increase in intensity thereafter with isolated very heavy rainfall over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal , Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and Meghalaya till August 2, IMD said.

Isolated extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) is additionally likely over Assam and Meghalaya on August 25.