For pandemic-hit Kerala, it’s a make-or-break Onam

The 10-day-long Onam festivities in Kerala will conclude with Thiruvonam on August 21. Onam is that the biggest festival within the state that spans religious boundaries and attracts tons of the region’s migrant workers back home. In some ways , Onam also marks the start of the festive season across India – it continues till the Christmas/New Year season. Festive demand has always been important for the economy, but it’ll be very crucial for pandemic-affected markets this year. This year’s Onam festivities might be a make-or-break moment for the southern state, which after being hailed as a model within the fight against the pandemic, is handling what seems to be an uncontrollable surge in Covid-19 cases. it had been around Onam last year that Covid-19 cases began rising in Kerala, putting an end to the state’s claims of successfully containing the pandemic. If there’s an identical spike in cases this year too, things , a minimum of in terms of the medical infrastructure’s ability to cope, may spiral out of control.

Although India imposed a 68-day long nation-wide lockdown on Annunciation , 2020, to stop the spread of the Covid-19 virus, the pandemic’s trajectory was very different in Kerala and remainder of India within the initial phase. Cases started rising steadily in remainder of India as restrictions were eased. However, Kerala managed to buck this trend, earning much applause for its handling of the pandemic. things in Kerala changed with Onam, which was on August 30, 2020. A comparison of normalised values of the seven-day average of daily new infections on a scale of 0 to 1 (0 being the minimum and 1 maximum) for Kerala and remainder of India shows this clearly, with a sudden spike in Kerala’s case trajectory round the last week of August 2020. the primary wave of Covid-19, once it started in Kerala, took longer to subside, unlike within the remainder of the country. That the state had two rounds of polls, local body elections in December then assembly elections in April, didn’t help

Given the importance of festivals for businesses, governments are always struggling to relax restrictions. Kerala is not any exception to the present . Last year, the government relaxed restrictions before Onam – as an example , allowing people to dine-in in restaurants. This year too, the govt announced relaxations both before Eid and Onam. The impact of this is often evident in data from Google mobility indices for the state, which show a pointy rise around Onam last year. Of particular interest are the trends in mobility at retail establishments and transit stations, which potentially capture crowding in markets and inbound travel (of potentially infected) persons to the state. Mobility indices seem to possess increased sharply once more before Onam this year, albeit the Covid-19 situation is far worse. In fact, Kerala is recording more cases than the remainder of the country put together. the increase in mobility coincides with the amount of rise in Covid-19 cases within the state, both last year and now.A festive boost to mobility may have played a task within the 2020 surge and it appears to be happening again

To be sure, Kerala’s medical infrastructure has not collapsed due the pandemic, as was seen in most parts of the country during the second wave of the pandemic. Daily new cases and positivity rates, while they’re still high, have come down from their peak levels in Kerala. Why does the present situation in Kerala matter for the remainder of the country then? One, Onam is that the first during a series of forthcoming festivals, all crucial for the revival of consumption demand within the economy.

Even an inkling of the third wave of the pandemic is sure to crush both consumer and business sentiment and significantly damage the country’s economic prospects. Whether or not Kerala’s Covid-19 cases surge after the festival are going to be the primary litmus test of whether restoration of pre-pandemic mobility levels trigger the third wave. Despite having a better number of cases, Kerala has emerged together of the simplest performers in terms of vaccination. As of August 19, 2021, it’s fully vaccinated 19.3% of its adult population and administered a minimum of one dose to a different 33.4%. additionally to offering personal immunity, vaccines, once they need crossed a critical threshold, also are expected to hamper the speed of infections. If cases spike in Kerala despite a significantly high level of vaccinations, then one can expect much worse in other states where vaccinations levels are lower . But a mishap-free Onam, a minimum of on the pandemic front, might be specialized news for the economy.